Trump Touts Trafalgar Poll Showing Graham Ahead in SC Senate Race
Trump shares a Trafalgar Group tracking poll that puts Darline Graham atop a crowded Republican field for South Carolina's 2026 special US Senate election, with two rivals tied for second.
WASHINGTON D.C. — Donald J. Trump amplified a Trafalgar Group tracking poll showing Darline Graham leading a crowded Republican field for South Carolina’s 2026 special US Senate election. The survey placed Graham at 27%, ten points clear of her nearest rivals. Trump relayed the numbers to his followers on Truth Social.
The poll of 989 respondents, conducted from July 28 to July 30 with a 2.9-point margin of error, showed Ralph Norman and Russell Fry tied at 17.4%. Mark Sanford drew 15.1%, Mark Lynch 8.1% and Samuel Sam Shepherd 1.1%, according to the figures Trump posted. Undecided voters accounted for 12.4%, a bloc large enough to reshape the standings before the vote.
Here is the full post on truthsocial: “BREAKING: @trafalgar_group SC GOP 2026 Special Election for US Senate Tracking Poll(7/28-30) 989 Respondents 2.9 MOE 27.0% Darline Graham 17.4% @RussellFrySC 17.4% Ralph Norman 15.1% Mark Sanford 8.1% Mark Lynch 1.1% Samuel Sam Shepherd 0.9%Duke Buckner 0.4% Mark McBride 0.3% Clark Nielson 12.4% Und” on July 31, 2026 at 5:30 PM ET.
This is Trump’s 4th message released today. On average, Trump produces 18 posts per day since his inauguration on January 20, 2025.
The move fits a broader pattern in Trump’s recent messaging, with 63 of his 420 posts over the last 30 days focused on elections.
The stakes run deep for the candidates trailing Graham. A lead of this size, so close to a special election, hands Graham momentum, donor attention and the mantle of front-runner. Norman and Fry, locked in a tie for second, now compete for the same voters and risk splitting the field that could consolidate behind either of them. Sanford, a former governor and congressman seeking a return to office, must overcome a fourth-place standing to stay relevant.
A Trafalgar Group tracking poll graphic displayed results for the 2026 South Carolina special U.S. Senate election on Truth Social on 07/31/2026.
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Special elections for open Senate seats draw national money and attention because they can shift the balance of a narrowly divided chamber. A crowded primary with nine named candidates and a large undecided share often produces a runoff, a SC enario South Carolina law permits when no candidate clears a majority. The 12.4% undecided figure exceeds Graham’s ten-point cushion, leaving the outcome unsettled.
For the average reader, a single-state Senate race carries weight beyond its borders. Each seat helps decide which party controls committees, confirmations and the legislative agenda that touches taxes, health care and federal spending. A shift of one seat has flipped Senate control in recent cycles.
This has happened before. Trump has repeatedly promoted polls that favor his preferred outcomes or draw attention to contested primaries, using his platform to steer coverage and donor interest.Trafalgar Group, an Atlanta-based pollster, gained prominence for surveys during past presidential cycles and has been a frequent reference point in Republican primary contests.
The next decision rests with South Carolina primary voters, though a date for the special election vote was not announced in the post. Until the ballots are cast, the tracking numbers remain a snapshot rather than a result.
Crowded Republican primaries in South Carolina have upended front-runners before. In the 2010 governor’s race,Nikki Haley trailed in early polling before surging past better-known rivals to win a runoff and the office. The lesson for any leader holding an early edge is that a large undecided bloc can rewrite the standings before the votes are counted.
Assigned topic: Elections.
This is Trump’s 4th Truth Social post today, out of 5 total today.
On average, Trump produces 18 posts per day since his inauguration on January 20, 2025.
Trump’s last post was 1 hour ago.
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