Trump shares a media post on Truth Social

Trump truth Social post containing 2 videos. Video transcript Yeah, you know, we've had really good Democratic polls coming out from Ohio, Michigan, Iowa. And you know, fool me once, shame on you. Fool me four times, I just have to ask the question, could

First Published: September 30, 2026, 10:32 PM ET

WASHINGTON D.C. — Truth Social post containing 2 videos.

Video transcript Yeah, you know, we’ve had really good Democratic polls coming out from Ohio, Michigan, Iowa. And you know, fool me once, shame on you.

Donald J. Trump shared a video highlighting historical polling data where Republicans consistently outperformed September survey projections in Midwestern states like Iowa, Ohio, and Michigan. Post-election analyses of the 2024 election show that higher turnout among Republican-leaning voters and key demographic shifts ultimately fueled Trump’s victories.

Truth Social post containing 2 videos.

Video transcript Yeah, you know, we’ve had really good Democratic polls coming out from Ohio, Michigan, Iowa. And you know, fool me once, shame on you. Fool me four times, I just have to ask the question, could it happen again? Because just take a look at this. Okay, Midwest polling Mrs. GOP outperform September polls by in the major 2024 races. That is president and Senate in the states ahead of Senate race. In Iowa, where the Democrats have been getting really good polls, Republicans outperform their September polls by nine points back in 2024. How about Ohio? Six points. How about Michigan? Five points. And I will note that the leads that the Democrats have in all of these races right now are under how much the GOP outperform back in 2024. So you look at this and you go, you know what? Maybe we should just hold on a second here because we’ve seen this dance before and it was not a dance that Democrats like when the votes were actually cast and counted. Okay, but a skeptic will look at this and say, “Harry, this is 2024. Trump was on the ballot then. What about races where the president is not on the ballot?” Yeah, exactly right. So you know, 2024, 2020, 2016, Trump outperformed in these three states by significant margins. But what about a midterm election? You can go back to Trump’s first midterm election, and it’s the same exact story. Look at this. The GOP outperform September polls in the major 2018 statewide races by six points in Iowa, six points in Ohio, and eight points in Michigan. The bottom line is this. Over the last few cycles, whether it be 2018, 2016, 2020, 2024, Republicans and have outperformed their September polls by at least five points in all these three states where Democrats right now are ahead, but not by a wide enough margin whereby if Republicans outperform their September polls again, it could become very, very interesting.