Trump touts Stephen Moore chart showing income gains for poorest Americans
Trump a chart credited to economist Stephen Moore claims the 25th-percentile household gained $2,084 in 16 months under Trump, while falling $176 across Biden's term.
WASHINGTON D.C. — Donald Trump has promoted a chart claiming low-income Americans gained more under his terms than under Joe Biden.
Here is the full post on truthsocial: “From Stephen Moore Shows the lowest income Americans have done far better under Trump than Biden Change in Real Household Income, 2025$ Net Change in Real Household Income – 25th Percentile Cumulative change over each president’s term, in 2025 dollars $5,000 $4,058 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $0 -$1,000 Trump 1.0 48 months Source: Census CPS Monthly Basic, Author’s Calculations -$176 Biden $2,084 Trump 2.0 48 months 16 months ÛP UNLEASH PROSPERITY”
The chart tracks the net change in real household income at the 25th percentile, measured in 2025 dollars. It credits Trump’s first term with a $4,058 gain over 48 months, assigns Biden a $176 loss over his term, and shows a $2,084 gain across 16 months of Trump’s second term. The graphic cites the Census Current Population Survey monthly basic file, with figures attributed to the author’s own calculations.
Stephen Moore is an American economist and conservative commentator who worked at The Heritage Foundation from 1983 to 1987 and again beginning in 2014, according to heritage.org. He co-founded and led the Club for Growth from 1999 to 2004, advised Trump’s 2016 campaign, and helped shape the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 alongside Larry Kudlow. Moore co-founded the advocacy group Committee to Unleash Prosperity in 2015 with Arthur Laffer, Kudlow, and Steve Forbes, the organization whose logo appears on the chart.
The stakes fall along familiar partisan lines. The chart advances the case that supply-side tax and energy policy lifts the lowest earners, a claim that benefits Trump’s economic messaging and Moore’s advocacy work. Critics of the framing note the comparison sets Trump’s incomplete 16-month second term against Biden’s full 48-month term, a mismatch the graphic’s own labels reveal.
Moore’s methodology carries a caveat. The figures rest on the author’s calculations rather than a published federal estimate, so the numbers cannot be independently verified from the graphic alone. The underlying Census Current Population Survey is a standard government data set, but the specific cumulative computations belong to Moore.
For the average reader, the dispute centers on take-home purchasing power. Real household income measures earnings adjusted for inflation, so a rising figure signals a family can buy more with its paycheck. Whether the poorest quarter of households have gained ground since 2025 shapes debates over grocery costs, wages, and the value of a dollar.
Has this happened before? This has happened before. Trump has repeatedly amplified economic charts from allied analysts to argue that his policies outperform his predecessor’s, and Moore has produced supply-side comparisons across two decades of Republican campaigns. Trump has posted on the economy 28 times in the last 30 days out of 470 total posts, according to a Zenger analysis.
The next test comes from the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which publish the income and inflation data underpinning any such comparison. A date for the next official household income release tied to this dispute has not been announced.
Supply-side economists advising presidents have faced hard reckonings before. Moore himself withdrew his name from consideration for the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in spring 2019 amid bipartisan resistance, according to heritage.org. The Federal Election Commission sued the Club for Growth, the group Moore once led, over its failure to register as a political action committee across the 2000, 2002, and 2004 election cycles. The two sides settled in 2007 for $350,000, according to fedsoc.org.
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Zenger analysis